Third Lockdown is weakening

 Third Lockdown is weakening

        The prevalence of SARS-CoV2 virions in the UK (as a whole) is still falling. This is shown in the green and blue portions of this semi-log plot of [Log (daily case increment)] against day (before or after the 1st Jan 2021). 

       However, it is no longer possible to draw a convincing single line through the data-points since 5th Jan 2021. The green points show data from 5th Jan to 2nd Feb, where the halving-time is 15.8 days (0.301/0.0191). The blue points represent data from 2nd to 26th Feb, where the fitted line has a slope corresponding to a halving-time of 21.97 days (0.301/0.0137). (See my previous posts on the pandemic for details of this type of plot, and argument. The red data-points show the logarithmic spread of the virus during December.)

       To my eye, it is the data from the last week (from 19th to 26th Feb) that show the tendency to bend upward. I suppose it is Lock-down Fatigue, perhaps with a touch of Vaccination Complacency.  Or perhaps a knock-on from Valentine's Day. But it is a little worrying, and needs to be heeded. (Not, please, our ridiculous 'head-in-sand' behaviour displayed by our government and media during July and August 2020, commented on in my https://occidentis.blogspot.com/2020/09/covid-19-case-data-uk.html.)

(See also: Variants of Concern
Covid Epidemiology part 5
Pandemic and new variants
SARS-CoV2 Continued
COVID-19 Epidemiology part 2)

 Tax Fat Cars

I think the government should think about putting a tax on extra-wide cars. It might turn the trend away from ever-wider and wider models, which would save an awful lot of bother and expense, and at the same time raise a little revenue to pay for the damage done to our roads. 

Fat cars are as much of a nuisance in a carpark as they are in a narrow lane; for their owners as well as for everyone else. And in a subtle but undeniable way they are somewhat insulting to the 'ordinary' person (who is content with an 'ordinary' sized car). Only by driving with extreme humility can a fat car owner avoid the implication that he or she thinks they are 1½ times as important as their fellow road users. The wives sometimes manage it, by looking helplessly lost in the great space of the interior, while they grip the great wheel and peer over the dashboard, slowing to nothing as they approach another road-user. But the husbands seldom try, preferring to display their road-skills, and panache.

Of course, cars are getting bigger and heavier because they incorporate ever higher safety standards; as is pointed out by Richard Bremner in the August 2019 number of Autocar (https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/features/investigation-why-are-cars-becoming-so-wide). But I am not talking about the merely-wide; rather the too-wide, and the unnecessarily-wide.

Cars that are over 2 metres wide automatically fall in this category. But I think it would be fair to bring the road-fund 'super-tax' in at 1990 mm.

Car                                                    Width (mm)

Landrover Rangerover sport                1990

Audi Q8                                                1995

Landrover Defender (90/110)              1996

Bentley Bentayga                                 2010

Landrover Discovery (mirrors out)      2220

You see, I am thinking of the inconvenience to fellow road users, as well as the damage to our roads. It is bad enough when a wide car meets a normal car. But as the frequency of these giants increases every year, there will come the time when a fat car meets another fat car. Something has to give. Richard Bremner recounts a London traffic jam caused simply by the fact that a Bentley Continental GT and a Range Rover were unable to pass one another in an ordinary street. The resulting jam took 20 minutes to clear. 

If the verges are soft, it is the verges that have to give. Think of the cost to the public purse of repairing or widening the 214,900 miles of minor roads that we have in Britain. If we cannot halt the trend towards wider cars, we can at least start to put money aside to repair the damage.

(See also: https://occidentis.blogspot.com/2012/04/higher-tax-bands.html
https://occidentis.blogspot.com/2016/09/estate-tax-and-limits-to-wealth.html
https://occidentis.blogspot.com/2018/04/government-spending_2.html
https://occidentis.blogspot.com/2012/03/budget-2012.html
https://occidentis.blogspot.com/2012/11/positive-money.html
https://occidentis.blogspot.com/2013/03/the-money-masters-positive-money.html
https://occidentis.blogspot.com/2012/11/positive-money-2.html
https://occidentis.blogspot.com/2014/07/monetarism-1.html
https://occidentis.blogspot.com/2016/10/why-tax-why-not-just-print-money.html
https://occidentis.blogspot.com/2019/07/bank-capitalisation.html
https://occidentis.blogspot.com/2011/10/deficit-spending_11.html)

We anxiously watch for the effects of the Vaccines

  We are very proud of and grateful for our dedicated NHS staff. They are working their socks off to get the two vaccines (Pfizer and AstraZenica) distributed where they will (a) save lives, and (b) bring down the number of circulating viruses.

        I have been following the numbers of new COVID-19 cases reported in the whole of the UK each day on the excellent government website. I plot the logarithm of that number against the day. In December 2020, under a confused and heterogenous tiered system, the virus continued to spread; logged data (pink symbols) rise more-or-less monotonically, with a doubling time of 16.3 days. After Christmas new lockdown was imposed. Since 5th January the logged data (blue symbols) fall more-or-less monotonically with a halving time of 16.3 days. (During the first lockdown, in May and June, the falling incidence showed a halving time of 19.8 days, so this January 2021 fall is marginally faster.)

        Vaccination started at 8th December 2020, but till this time (end January) it has been largely confined to the over 70 age group. It is clear that this group, selected as the most likely to die of COVID-19, are not the group most likely to be the main spreaders of the virus.  

The December data (pink squares) show a steady rise, doubling every 16.3 days (rather ignoring Boris’s lockdowns, letups, and tiers, but maybe showing a slight upward curve as the 'Kent' variant spread.).

        So far, the data for the whole of the UK from 5th January fit a fairly steady monotonic decay curve, t½≅16.3days. (See Fig. 1. Remember, I plot (on the vertical axis) log [base 10] of the number of new cases reported on each day relative to 1st Jan 2021 (shown on the horizontal axis). Blue diamonds are January data to 31st inclusive.) I am sure that everyone is hoping to see a distinct acceleration in the decline of these transmission numbers, but that is not yet visible. 

(The preference for ‘reporting cases' on Fridays is very pronounced — 8, 15, 22, 29 in Jan 2021.)

Of course, the over 70 age group are not the major spreaders, So let 

us look at the Logged (and smoothed) data for the number of deaths on 

each day in January. Unfortunately, there is no convincing sign yet of a 

decline in the daily death toll. The data show only a strong dependence 

on the day of the week. Throughout January, Mondays are good days, 

with 2-3 times fewer deaths than found on Wednedays.