Third Lockdown is weakening
The prevalence of SARS-CoV2 virions in the UK (as a whole) is still falling. This is shown in the green and blue portions of this semi-log plot of [Log (daily case increment)] against day (before or after the 1st Jan 2021).
However, it is no longer possible to draw a convincing single line through the data-points since 5th Jan 2021. The green points show data from 5th Jan to 2nd Feb, where the halving-time is 15.8 days (0.301/0.0191). The blue points represent data from 2nd to 26th Feb, where the fitted line has a slope corresponding to a halving-time of 21.97 days (0.301/0.0137). (See my previous posts on the pandemic for details of this type of plot, and argument. The red data-points show the logarithmic spread of the virus during December.)
To my eye, it is the data from the last week (from 19th to 26th Feb) that show the tendency to bend upward. I suppose it is Lock-down Fatigue, perhaps with a touch of Vaccination Complacency. Or perhaps a knock-on from Valentine's Day. But it is a little worrying, and needs to be heeded. (Not, please, our ridiculous 'head-in-sand' behaviour displayed by our government and media during July and August 2020, commented on in my https://occidentis.blogspot.com/2020/09/covid-19-case-data-uk.html.)
(See also: Variants of Concern
Covid Epidemiology part 5
Pandemic and new variants
SARS-CoV2 Continued
COVID-19 Epidemiology part 2)
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