COVID-19 Epidemiology, Part 2
I continue to track the UK data each day, recording now the reported 'deaths' as well as 'cases' ❋❋. And I continue to plot the Log(10) and find a straight-line; i.e. there is a good fit to 'logarithmic growth'. But, in order to make my curves responsive to good news in the form of a slowing in the rate of transmission, I plot only data from the last 7 days. Currently (data to 29/3/2020) I find a doubling time of 3.8 days for cases, but 3.3 days for deaths.
John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch) Tweets on Sunday 29th that the doubling time for the death toll in 2.8 days. I wonder why the discrepancy. (And would appreciate discussing this in detail: cawstein@gmail.com)
(❋❋ I realize that there is some doubt as to 'cause of death' when COVID-19 is present, and some doubt about 'cases' when tests are not used, but those problems are inherent in the data, and not my problem here.)
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