COVID-19 Epidemiology, Part 3
I continue to plot the Log of UK cases (and deaths) each day (See COVID-19 Epidemiology, Part 1 and COVID-19 Epidemiology, Part 2.) However, the 'cases' data no longer fit a logarithmic plot; the growth is slowing. If I take the daily increase in the logged data for the period 16th - 24th March and plot that against the date (day 0 is 4th March), the data are (of course) rather wild. But the average daily rise is around 0.086 corresponding to a doubling-time of 3.5 days (0.3010/0.086 =3.5). Steady!
On 24th March lockdown in the UK was instituted in earnest. There is a very noticable change in the slope of this plot of 'Daily increment of log cases' against date. Over the 11 days 24th March - 4th April the calculated doubling-time has gradually (albeit erratically) risen and is now around 7 days. That is good news.
No similar improvement is yet visible in the log(deaths)/day curve; doubling-time remains around 3.24 days. Presumably that is because there is a time-lapse of around a week between showing symptoms and dying. We must hope to see an improvement in the next few days regarding the data on deaths from this troublesome virus.
I understand that the 'cases' data from Mexico show an increase of around 10.5% per day. That is to say, it is still logarithmic, with a doubling-time of close to 7 days. (0.301/Log(1.105)=6.942)
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