COVID Pandemic and the New Variant

29th December 2020

Exponential Growth of the Pandemic in Britain

     For the last 30 days (from the 28th November) there has been a steady 'monotonic' rise in the number of daily new cases of COVID reported on the Government site. On a semi-logarithmic plot this looks like a straight line, signifying exponential growth. Throughout December there has been a more-or-less steady doubling time of 17 days. If no change is made to the way we behave, or the virus behaves, this means that the predicted number of new cases in mid-January would be 82,000 per day. 

     In the Figure below, the horizontal axis shows the day (counting from 1st Jan 2020), the vertical axis show the Log(10) of the number of new cases on that day. The Blue points roughly correspond to October, Green to November and Red to December. The y parameter indicates the slope, and R(squared) indicates the extent to which the data follow the modelled line.

     Of course, as every viron has a chance of mutating, and of replicating, twice the viral load by mid-January will mean twice the mutation rate (for good or ill), and twice the growth rate.  (It is perhaps worth noting that the increased rate of propagation noticeable since 1st December is not reflected yet in an increase in the daily number of deaths. Though, of course, COVID deaths will always lag COVID infections by two or three weeks.)

     The Government has made clear their policy on schools: that scholars 'stagger' back and get tested by the 50% efficient 'flow-test'. I would advocate rethinking that, till we can bend the curve back into a falling trajectory. Or at least make non-attendance be an option.

     The Government has also made clear that the vaccine will go first to NHS staff and the over-eighties. I would think the over-eighties are not spreaders.  I would suggest that priority should go to (in order): 

• NHS front-liners (nurses and doctors),
• Other front-liners on whom we depend (shop staff, bus-drivers, postal and delivery staff)
• Others forced by Government into harm's way (scholars, military)
• Spreaders (compulsive talkers, and social drinkers, and thoughtless people generally)
• The mobile vulnerable (a sheltered vulnerable is surely at less risk).

     I am aware that the general public have no clue as to who the spreaders are, nor how effective the light mask, and the 'full-kit'. I wonder who has compiled this information and whether it would not be worth publishing. (Please!!)