25 September 2022

Who wants economic growth?

Growth, Steady-State, or Shrinkage?    

There seems to be a majority in the Conservative party in favour of economic growth, such that Lis Truss could win office by offering 'growth' (with no mention of cost). 

I am not convinced that people are thinking deeply enough about this question. I mistrust the Conservatives because their declared aim is to favour the rich. I mistrust the media because they are (for the most part) simply repeating the scraps they pick up. I have learnt in my professional life, as a scientist, that one should never accept a proposition simply because it is widely accepted. I favour steady-state or shrinkage. But let us look.

    Some honest people might favour growth, thinking that "levelling up" requires growth. For everyone to have their own car, their own home, or two cars and a holiday home, there must be a considerable increase in the manufacture of desirable commodities. True enough; but we could "level down" if that seemed better –– in the long run. 

    Faced with a deficit between government spending and tax receipts, and having squeezed spending to the point where public services are failing on all sides, it is natural to try to increase tax receipts. There seem to be only three ways to do that: (a) tightening tax laws to minimise avoidance, (b) increasing tax rates, and (c) increasing gross domestic production (GDP).  These might be characterised as (a) difficult, (b) un-palatable**, and (c) opaque. I.e., does this 'growth' mean more of the same, or an increase of efficiency? If it means more factories, houses, schools, hospitals, concrete, trucks, cars, roads, fuel, pollution, CO2, with lower standards of hygiene, oversight, and control, etc. I would vote against it. Obviously! Because 'Quality of Life' matters. 

  Truss proposed to increase GDP by bringing in foreign workers. That would increase tax revenues, but it would not increase GDP per capita; we would not individually be better off. 

**It is amazing how few people can see the up-side to taxes –– that taxes fund services. See: https://occidentis.blogspot.com/2020/11/paying-taxes-both-virtue-and-necessity.html 

REFERENCES

West, I.C. (2011), https://occidentis.blogspot.com/2011/11/growth.html 

West, I.C. (2017), https://occidentis.blogspot.com/2017/10/coppola-comment-comment.html

Geoff Mann (2022) "Reversing the Freight Train", London Review of Books 44/16 p.27.

Jason Hickel (2021) "Less is more: how regrowth will save the world", Windmill, ISBN: 978 1 78609 121 5





    

No comments: