16 January 2015

Liberal Democrat MPs


Liberal Democrat MPs

If I am going to support a Lib Dem MP at the next election I would like to know that my candidate was equipped to discuss the following issues, and where applicable that the candidate held the appropriate views and would stick to them in the face of pragmatic arguments, and ad hoc alliances.
●  We must energetically seek to reduce the growing disparity between the wealthy and the poor. Our MPs must know 4 or 5 good reason why this is essential for the cohesion of society, and for the active participation in democratic government of all classes. They must clarify in their own minds whether these reasons trump arguments about losing talent abroad, and the supposed trickle-down of wealth from the 'rich-man's table'. If Lib Dem MPs will not vote against tax cuts for the wealthy, I shall have to find someone who will.
●  Our MPs must understand economics: understand asymmetric risk (inexplicably called 'moral hazard' in the USA); understand that buying and selling shares, though it brings money to the 'City' and to the bankers, does not create wealth (it merely takes if from the silly poor and gives it to the clever rich); understand that 'quantitative easing' (a silly[1] name for 'controlled inflation') is based on a misunderstanding of why there is resistance to investing during  a depression [2]. MPs should understand that there is no particular reason why, with proper accounting, public money loaned to the banking sector in a crisis should not be returned, pound for pound, to the public purse, when the crisis is over [3]. Lib Dem MPs should know the "Mirrlees Review into the UK tax system", and should know what it recommends, and why that has not been implemented.
●  Our MPs should clarify their attitudes to privatization, and public ownership. Privatization (by harnessing the avarice of the capitalist) does seem uniquely able to force improvements and economies; but beyond a certain point it can only siphon off public money into private hands, splinter a unified and planned system (be it railways or NHS), and drive down accounting costs [4] and quality until serious damage calls a halt, and in extreme cases re-nationalisation. Private enterprise must be closely and intelligently regulated every inch of the way. Many of our proudest national institutions were founded and run as state, public, non-profit enterprises for many decades, e.g. the postal service, the BBC, and the National Health Service; see also the successful East Coast Railway. It is not state ownership that is bad; it is bad management that is bad. Privatization is not in itself essentially and necessarily bad; but when unbridled it is essentially against the public interest. Doctrinaire privatization is very dangerous. Some systems must be unified in order to function properly and efficiently; arguably the rail network, and the NHS.
●  Do Lib Dem MPs understand the concept of 'worker participation on boards of large companies', or 'co-determination', ("Mitbestimmung" as it is called in Germany, where it became legally required in 1976)?  Is there any better way to resolve the inherent conflict between labour and capital. (Has any Lib Dem ever mentioned co-determination in Parliament, or Party Congress?)
●  Lib Dem MPs should know the arguments for and against the 'inquisitorial' justice system practiced in France and Germany (among other places). This should be discussed and briefing papers offered. It is foolish to think that British traditions are inevitably better than other traditions. The confrontational British common law system has become very expensive, and though its aim is a fair trial, is not aiming at finding the truth; and often fails in that regard.
●  The observed and supposed faults of the European Community must be known, studied and debated; and remedies sought and pursued. This is very urgent. Are the horror stories (bent bananas, etc.) true?  Are the rules made by a small bureaucracy not under 'sensible' democratic control? Is that the problem? Why is it the case? Has no one protested? Do we have to leave Europe to reform Europe, and how would that work?

The Lib Dem party machine should have think-tanks covering these (and other) issues, and parliamentary candidates should be well served with briefing papers; the stance and the supporting arguments should come off the tongue promptly and with conviction.

Notes: [1] Quantitative Easing is a silly term because it suggests that, in a recession, spending is inhibited by a shortage in the way a belly is restrained by a tight belt. There is just as much 'money' as there was before the recession, but it is in the wrong hands. The rich do not invest when there is no profit to be made. So giving the 'rich' even more money (i.e. Quantitive Easing) does very little to increase spending; the extra money is simply stashed away in the Bank of England.
[2]  It is not that there is too little money; it is that there is no point in building a factory if no-one will buy the products. Banks simply invest the newly created money in the Bank of England.
[4] Accounting costs are those shown to parliament; Actual overall costs may not fall significantly, and in some cases can be shown to rise when administrative costs and bailouts are taken into consideration.

13 January 2015

Radio 3


Some questions regarding BBC Radio 3

And my individual answers

How much do you listen now? Is that less or more than in the past?

An hour a day, perhaps. More now during the night than when I was young, and the station closed at 11pm (with the 'Queen', or a Schubert song). I do not now listen 5pm till 0100hrs for a number of reason (Do not like the presenter, do not like the music, not into Jazz, no idea what is going to come up but experience suggests only 20% chance I shall want to listen. Etc.)

General programme content, distinct from presenter input

Which programme formats (CD-based ‘sequences’, concerts/recitals, magazine/guests, music documentaries/features) do you enjoy and which not? Are there other kinds of programme you would welcome?

I enjoy lunchtime concerts, Composer of the Week, Record Review, Building a Library, Through the Night.
I used to enjoy 'innocent ear' 30 years ago. I enormously benefited from Anthony Hopkins' "Talking about music", and Hans Keller's 3-minute expositions of a work to be heard that evening. I (personally) have my quirks, and so (I suppose) does everyone else. All one can ask of the BBC is that we can navigate round the stuff we do not like, and know how to switch on for (or 'download') the stuff we do like.
I have liked enormously the occasional 'intelligently themed' sequence, and could do with a few more. ( I mean something like: The influence of Corelli; The battle over Equal Temperament; The evolution of Sonata form; The Evolution of the Piano.)
There was a time when the technical team went out to China with the BBC Symphony orchestra to broadcast from there, which was totally daft. More interesting would be to hear a Chinese Orchestra playing in London (if one ever did).
But is Radio 3 only for music? I used to enjoy 'high brow' talk radio on the 3rd programme (scholastic debates as by medieval monks, Greek Plays). I used to find 5 minutes of news on Radio 3 better than 45 minutes on Radio 4 (which is really 5 minutes of news and 40 of puggling.)  [Parenthetically, Radio 4 news is extraordinarily parochial. What is happening in Germany, Finland, Taiwan, Japan, Hawaii, New Zealand? We are expected to be interested in nothing but our own back-yard and media persons.]

What, for you, would be the basic constituents of a satisfying music programme and what might spoil it? What harms good Radio 3 presentation?

The music of an evening concert should be fairly well 'bunched' so that if one piece suits the mood, the rest of the concert will likely suit as well.
What might spoil a morning sequence of recorded music would be interjected talk. Erudite music talk is wonderful  (see 'Hans Keller' comment above), but talking is a separate experience altogether from the experience of listening to music; they do not mix well. I think the experiences and views of individual listeners should be totally absent from the programme (as of no general interest), that of the presenter's experience and personality should be a vanishingly small component, the personality of the performer should be experienced ONLY via their music, not their talking. An interview of a performer or a distinguished novelist is one thing, and could be good; but it is not a concert.

How does the time of day influence the kind of programme you would enjoy? (What kind of presentation do you want at the various times of day: early morning, later morning, lunchtime, afternoon, early evening, mid evening, late night?)

Enormously. I wake to music with a minimum of talk, but breakfast to the news. I am fascinated by Record Review  and Building a Library, on Saturday mornings. And through the night I prefer gentle and distant music.

Do you like the listener ‘interactivity’ (texts, tweets, emails, phone-ins, quizzes, requests)? Does it serve a useful purpose?

No, I do no like it. It may help some folk to feel engaged, but mostly the one interviewed, which is only ONE person!. It worries me that the BBC may think that the 10 tweets it gets about a programme is representative of its audience. It further worries me that the BBC does not seem to have a mechanism of sampling the whole country. It would be wonderful if there were a way of detecting and monitoring the sets getting switched off all over the country (e.g. 10 bars into a certain piece of music).

What do you think about the way the different kinds of programme are scheduled (time of day, day of week)? Do you find the present schedule educative? Diverse enough? Balanced?

Um! I do not find the schedule particularly 'educative', though some of the programmes might be educational. Being rather elderly, I find the changes to the schedule too frequent; just when I learn to expect "Composer of the week" at a certain time it changes to another. The schedules probably are diverse enough. Let us guard against narrowing the repertoire to encompass only the most popular; but allowing enthusiast to force unpopular material onto the schedules will not work either. Porpora, Hummel, Spohr are not over-exposed in the way the 'Pearl Fishers duet' is, but nor are they unpleasant, in the way Stockhausen is.
I think the BBC has had a tendency to fall into a groove (a cliquey laziness); the "only trumpeter" is Håkan Hardenberger, the "only flautist" Jean-Pierre Rampal.

Online presentation: do you find online material (programme information, playlists) presented satisfactorily? How important is it to have playlists posted in advance?

I think the growing provision of online access to the music itself is wonderful. It will completely remove the problems of scheduling discussed above. But I think it has a long way to go. In general I find the BBC websites chaotic; different fonts shout at you from every corner of the screen, different heuristic media are jumbled, (pictures, words, fonts, colours, etc); too many pictures (What are they for? It is not a beauty competition. Beethoven's violin concerto is explained only to an idiot by means of a picture of a violin.)
Think of 95% of your audience as beginners. What is a 'playlist'? what is a 'track'?  What does it mean 'to export' ?  Why does one need to register? Having registered, selected some 'tracks' that one would like to listen to later, how does one find one's own 'playlist'? It is not on one's profile page. If one wants to listen to those works (or 'tracks') when away from internet access, where is ones playlist stored then?
The compressed versions of e.g. "Composer of the week" are very disappointing, for I usually want the music as much as the talking.

What do you feel about on-air promotion (programme trails)? Which kind is useful and which not?

I pay no attention to the 'trails'. The merely spoken ones are (for me) pointless, for they bear no relation to the way I choose to listen to the radio. (I do not think to myself "Hmm, Saint-Saëns' animals on in an hour's time; must stick around till I hear that.") If I am busy, or do not like the broadcast, I switch off.
I am even more strongly against the 10-second blast of music that follows the words "Elgar's cello concerto". It is like the mixing of pictures and words (above); it is a an actual strain to switch back and forth between different parts of the brain.
I am strongly in favour of the online publication of detailed schedules. (The online Radio Times is/was useless, as it does not have the requisite data — opus number of the works, when each begins, who is playing etc. The BBC website schedules are much better.) (Even better if/when we can click and download to our device for later listening.)

Radio 3 Facebook, blog, Twitter: do you use/follow any of them?

No. I have explained already that I think that one or two single opinions must give a very distorted opinion of the audience reaction; especially when self selected.

Presenters’ input/role

In what ways is the presenter important to a programme?

The words can be helpful. But the attitude and personality of the presenter is essentially a distraction.
I rather liked the high-brow-French-music-programme-presenter-style of some years ago; a beautiful but almost robotically neutral voice announced the next work as though reading the large font stuff off a record sleeve.

How much specialist knowledge do you expect a presenter to have? Does it depend on the type of programme? What would you regard as minimum qualifications for a  Radio 3 presenter?

They should know how to pronounce the standard alphabets of the relevant European languages: German, Italian, French, Russian, Spanish. (Für Elise is German; Pour Elise would be French, We usually get stuck halfway between.) And know how to pronounce the names of composers.

How important is the voice? In what way would you think some presenters are ‘better’ than others? Name three whom you think particularly good.

I find the quality of the voice far less important than the content. I like/Iiked David Mellor, and John Julius Norwich (but were both to be found on Classic FM). Of the BBC ones perhaps Donald McLeod, and Andrew McGregor; the others whom I remember liking are probably all dead, (Patricia Hughes, Alvar Lidell)

Is general tone and style important? If so, in what way (good or bad!)?

A certain amount of genuine (not contrived or pretended) interest in the music and the text must surely be good. None (please) of the grinning and giggling deliveries we hear on Classic FM and occasionally now on Radio 3; or the brash and booming (bass-enhanced) voices of Radio 1; or the fake 'rise and fall' of the voice that the BBC favoured some years ago, which often puts great emphasis on irrelevant words. Dead-pan robotic speech is better than such monkeying around.

What would improve presenter performance?

Intelligence, training, experience, a music degree, experience of playing music?

14 October 2014

Syria and Iran - Some background


Syria, Iraq and Iran
(Some background)

     Throughout the First World War, assuming the eventual defeat of the Ottoman Empire, the allies planned the carving up of the Middle East. France was planning to claim control over Syria (a claim they dated back to the crusades), leaving 'Palestine' and 'Mesopotamia' (now Iraq) to the British. At the post-war peace conference at Versailles, the Syrian Arabs were given (at the urging or TE Lawrence and others) some autonomy as a reward for their military involvement; by popular acclaim they chose their war hero Faisal I to be their king. However, within months, Faisal's regime ran into money troubles, the French declared they would rule Syria. King Faisal was expelled and went to live in England. The following year (1921), the British decided to foist King Faisal on their mandate in Mesopotamia, creating the kingdom of Iraq with Faisal as king. Faisal (supple, enlightened, and popular) ruled quite successfully until 1933, though his dependence on Britain placed an intolerable burden on him, for his people strongly resented Western interference. He died of a heart attack (or poison) in 1933. His son Ghazi, and his grandson Faisal II, both fared worse. Ghazi was killed in a car 'accident' in 1939, while Faisal II was shot with all his family in 1958, victims of the rising tide of Arab nationalism. Since then Iraq has been a republic. In Syria, the French mandate ended in 1946. Syria became a parliamentary republic but subject to incessant coups d'état until the Ba'ath party took control of the country in 1966. In 1970 the Assad family took control of the Ba'ath party, on behalf of the 'military'. 
     The Ba'ath party was founded in Syria in 1947 jointly by two teachers, an orthodox Christian (Aflaq) and a Suni Muslim (al-Bitar), both Arab, both educated in Paris in the late nineteen twenties where they absorbed ideas on nationalism and Marxism. Its motto became "Unity, Liberty, Socialism", the unity referring to Pan-Arabism. Under this influence, Syria fused with Egypt to form the United Arab Republic (UAR) in 1958, a union which lasted till 1961. Party branches existed in most Arab countries from the Maghreb to the Gulf, but Iraq was the only country besides Syria and Egypt where the Ba'ath were in power. In each national branch there was a political wing and a military wing. Though initially the Iraqi branch contained a majority of Shia Muslims, Pan-Arabism is more a Suni concept and the branch became predominantly Suni. In February 1962 the Iraq branch staged a coup d'état, but in November of the same year were driven underground by a reactionary coup. During their hidden period (1963 – 68) the Iraqi Ba'athists purged Nasserite and socialist concepts, and developed a secret security apparatus (answering to Saddam Hussein) to counter the power of the military wing.
     The story of oil exploitation is a strange mixture of commerce and Realpolitik, of respect for commercial contract law, and the blatant flouting of it. USA found oil in Texas in 1901. The British found oil in Iran in 1908 and created the Anglo-Persian Oil Company (APOC) to exploit it. In 1913, just before the outbreak of the First World War, Churchill switched the British Navy from coal to oil so the British war effort was totally dependent on oil. The British government acquired a controlling share in APOC, and this enormous injection of capital allowed it to acquire rights and access to outlets all over the world. BP (British Petroleum) started life as a exporting branch of a German company operating in Britain. Their assets were acquired by Britain during the war. Exploitation of Iraqi oil began in 1912 with APOC capital and the drive of an Armenian Turk called Gulbenkian, born in Constantinople but who fled with his family after the Armenian massacres of 1896, eventually becoming a British citizen. The Iraqi oil deposits turned out (October 1926) to be large and a composite company was formed by a number of major European and American oil companies, registered in London and designed to make no profit (and pay no tax!), but to sell its oil at cost price to the component companies. Iraq received royalties. The British suggested that the Iraqi government be allowed to buy shares, but other parties seem to have successfully prevented that. After the Second World War, nationalist movements in Iran and Iraq were pressing for ownership of their own oil. British oil interests in Iraq were nationalized by the Ba'athist Iraqi government in June 1972. 
     (The assets of the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company were nationalized in 1951. Britain appealed to the International court for restoration, but the case was dismissed, whereupon MI6 with CIA help engineered a putsch that ousted the nationalist prime minister (Mossadeq) and strengthened the westward-leaning Shah, who survived until the revolution of 1979.  From 1953 till 1979 BP extracted and marketed the oil on behalf of the National Iranian Oil Company sharing 50% of the profit, but did not let Iran see the accounts! In 1979 all foreign oil assets in Iran were confiscated by the revolutionary government.)
     The Ottomans were not popular 'overlords' in the middle east because no one likes to be a subject people. But at least they were Islamic. And in fact they were peculiarly successful at governing countries of mixed ethnicity and religion; Jews, Muslims (Shia, Suni), Christians (Orthodox, Roman, Nestorian), lived together in peaceful co-existence equally in Turkey,  Arabia, and the Balkans, Constantinople, Damascus, and Sarajevo.) The history of British, French and American intervention has not proved so successful.   

11 October 2014

Ebola Screening


Ebola Screening
(The need for education)

The World Health Organization (WHO) data show that the Ebola epidemic is spreading exponentially in West Africa. Using WHO data (reported in Wikipedia) it can be seen that the total number of cases shows a doubling time of 29 days (tx2 of deaths is 30 days).

Containment and education

This rate has remained depressingly steady from 1st May till the last week in September, showing that essentially nothing was learnt about containment (protection, how to handle the cases, and the corpses) between May and 25th Sept. If the present doubling time remains steady it means the 7,492 cases on 1st Oct would become 14,984 by 29th Oct (the 3439 deaths would become 6878 deaths by 30th Oct). And that would imply that we have still learnt nothing about containment.
Education must be speeded up. New methods of handling infected material must be evolved (e.g. perhaps remote handling machinery would be more effective than rubber gloves which are presumably removed at mealtimes). New social and religious practices regarding disposal must be worked out and inculcated.
Please tell us all, in simple words in large letters on a A5 poster, how to avoid infection; and what to do with suspected cases. Everyone in Sierra Leone should know these instructions by now.

Screening and tracking

The small amount of anecdotal evidence available in the press suggests that the delay between irreversible infection and overt symptom of fever (the incubation period) is well over 2 weeks and may be 3 weeks. This means that screening at point of boarding and leaving a plane will do very (very) little to prevent the spread of the disease from West Africa. However, as it is very easy to do, it might as well be done. (We did this with SARS in Taiwan in 2003; on entering any public building or aeroplane we filed past a remote thermosensor.)
However, what seems absolutely vital is that the whereabouts of every person leaving an infected area be known and tracked for 28 days. It is essentially pointless to take the temperature on entry into Britain if we then lose the traveller into the population.

05 October 2014

Lost warriors of the 'Islamic State'

                    Lost warriors of the 'Islamic State'
The young warriors who have gathered in the desert to proclaim an
Islamic State, a Caliphate, seem to have got lost. They seem to have
turned away from Allah and the teachings of Muhammad.
 
I ask you, is not Allah Merciful?  [Al-Qur'an 4:25; "And Allah is Oft-Forgiving,
Most Merciful."][Al-Qur'an 5:74; "..And Allah is Forgiving and Merciful."]
Is not Allah Just? [Al-Qur'an 4:40; "Allah is never unjust in the least degree".]
 
It therefore seems that the warriors of the so-called Islamic State
have turned away from Islam towards injustice and brutality.
If they die they will not die as martyrs. It sometimes seem that their
victims are nearer to heaven than they.
 
If any warriors wish to experience the Mercy of Allah it would be
well for them to seek out an Imam and beg him to teach them the way.
----
Cawstein, Morpeth, U.K.
(5th Oct. 2014)

27 September 2014

"Islamic State" and the present bombing spree

Hear hear! I applaud Major General Jonathan Shaw, the only sane voice that I have heard on
Islamic State, and the present (September 2014) bombing spree.
 
(You can listen on the following link from 6min 20 sec: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p027gp8k)

This is "a battle for the soul of Islam", and it should surely be left to
them. The involvement of the West is a distraction, a distortion, and
is counter productive.
 
(Is not democracy a "government of the people by the people for the
people"? )

Some people think of the middle east as an 'oil-rich' area, the source
of much of OUR oil. They forget that it is the homeland of millions of
people who have opted for a way of life and a religion that is
different from ours. Some think our 'homeland security' requires us to
invade their homeland. 

Golly!
--
Ian West
12 Longhirst Village,
MORPETH, NE61 3LT, UK
Tel: 01670 791880

05 August 2014

Index to Economy Posts


Annotated Index to Blog Postings

Economy

[21]  Monetarism 2— Keynesianism probably does cause Stagflation; but its purpose is to stabilize the labour market, not to stabilize the currency 
[20]  Monetarism 1— I read with sympathy the efforts of the Austrian/Chicago school of economics to preserve the inexorable logic and simplicity of their discipline, and to defend its relevance. But I cannot help them.
[19]  Keynes2 — With delight I spot the problem of having rich people living amongst us, or one extra problem; they sequester too much of the global money so that is does not circulate properly.
[18] Keynes1 — Keynes's 'General Theory' is an exciting but frustrating read. This seems generally conceded. I focus on the concept of the 'involuntarily unemployed'.
[17] Interest Rates — trying to follow Gerardo Coco on the Cobden Centre website. Is the essence of his point that no one interest rate will meet all the needs of this 'indicator'. Which is (presumably) why there are lots of interest rates.
[16] How bad is debt? — Bad for some, good for others. Do we therefore monitor or regulate?
[15] Payday Loans — Here I revive an old idea; that high rates of interest may be justified to cover risk, but once the principal is paid, the risk vanishes, and the entire period of the debt reverts to minimal rate of interest. Usury. Shylock. Contracts made under duress.
[14] The Big Six Power Companies — Power companies make a lot of money. On the continent they pay big dividends, in the UK tiny dividends, but they grow!
[13] Winter Fuel Payments — voluntary taxes are a bad idea. Anyway, the better-off do pay for their own fuel and for that of the less well off as well. Silly!
[12] Alcohol Duty and Minimum Price — Our government seem to have bodged that issue (reccommended by experts). Tax rates are a tangle. Seems to me the Scandinavians have the edge on us (again).
[11] The Money Masters & Positive Money — The "Money Masters" is a polemic against bankers. 'Positive Money' is a pressure group against bankers.
[10] Positive Money 2 — 'Positive Money' advocates a real Ring fence; but their suggestions seem to me to be unrealistic. Danish banks score better than ours in regard to clarity; and Danish pensions yield 50% more per 1£ invested. Connection?
[9] Interest and Usuary — First statement of my modification of the way interest is calculated. Is it essentially "Islamic Banking"?
[8] Centrica's Profit — The shareholders seem to think their dividends will go up with a rise in the cost of feedstock. That is funny! Are customers being taken for a ride?
[7] Pre-distribution — This sees 'worker participation' or 'Mitbestimmung' as in Germany and Sweden as the way to reconcile capital and labour.
[6] CPI or RPI — There are two 'cost of living' indices. Why do they differ, and which is better?    
[5] Deficit Spending 2  — I try to decide whether we should clamour for more government spending to tackle the recession. Not convinced at this stage (mid 2012).
[4] Taxation of the Wealthy  — What exactly is bad (for the country) about having wealthy people, and why must they be heavily taxed?