COVID is not retreating

Easing the Lock-down-2

(COVID-19 is no longer retreating)

     Using governmental data  for the "new UK cases each day", the numbers have been declining markedly since I started logging them on the 1st of May.  Then we were getting 6000 new cases per day, now only 500 - 700. 
     Now, if there are fewer active cases in the community there should be fewer new cases; i.e. the decline should be exponential, or logarithmic, like a cooling curve.  So, in the Figure below I have plotted the logarithm of the daily increment in UK cases against days (since the 1st of May, so 85 is the 24th July). (A value of 3.0 would mean 1000 new cases per day (1000=10^3); a value of 2.0 means 100 new cases per day (100=10^2).) 
    The data from 1st May to the 24th June are coloured blue, and fit a logarithmic decline. However, the data from 30th June to the 24th July, coloured red, show that the disease is no longer on the decline. We are in steady-state. 
     At the worst there could be a "second-wave", as we have been warned; at the best we shall live like this indefinitely, or until there is an effective and safe vaccine.

Semi-log plot of new cases per day in UK

(See text for details)