Is governmental COVID support causing Inflation?

 My Comments (in Red) on NotaYesman'sEconomics Post of 22 Jan 2021 

I find Shaun Richard's blogposts on the economy invaluable, but also immensely frustrating. He is well informed and keeps a close eye on the market and the operations of the Bank of England and other central banks. But his command of written English is appalling. 

I believe his latest blog-piece (that of 2021-01-22) concludes that massive governmental injection of money in response to the COVID-19 pandemic is causing signs of inflation in the December 2020 figures for UK retail sales. 

Retail sales may be up 2.9% this December compared with 2019 (see below), but the official (CPI) measure of inflation is only up 0.65% on December 2019.  (Is the CPI therefore wrong?)  However, it has been a funny old year. I am buying far more more books this year than last, but I am spending far less on petrol and air travel. I do not think I have been influenced by interventional government spending schemes. I would take with a cautious "pinch of salt" the conclusion that deficit-funded Government spending has caused appreciable monetary expansion, as yet. (But maybe I have missed Richard's point.)

&%&%&%&

Thus, Shaun Richard writes: 

The main (interventional) schemes are listed below.

§  COVID-19 Corporate Financing Facility

§  Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS)

§  Self-employment Income Support Scheme (SEISS)

§  Eat Out to Help Out

§  Miscellaneous subsidies paid out to businesses

"Of these the first does not involve the public finances at this stage as the Bank of England has lent some £12.3 billion in the CFF. It may appear if there are losses on the scheme but as we stand we see simply some implicit support for retail sales. " (Or: Of these the first does not appear as a debt in the public finances at this stage, as the Bank of England has merely "lent" some £12.3 billion into the CFF. It may appear as a debt if the loan is not repaid; but at present we see simply some implicit support for retail sales.).

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"Sadly the Office for National Statistics has turned its blind eye to this issue (of swings) and never produced (does he mean 'published'?) the research which was done (please punctuate) which leads me to conclude it favoured the Retail Price Index. (Over what? The CPI?) But the inflation issue is for another day except (to remark that) we have an area where out (our?) official statistics office has a disappointing track record."

(Comments are welcome direct to the me at cawstein@gmail.com)