03 January 2025

The Failures of Macro-Economics

The Failures of Macro-Economics

    I wrote some 7 years ago about the Failures of Macro Economics (q.v.), concluding that both academic and journalist writers were insufficiently rigorous with themselves and each other; their words could be ignored; opinions in this quasi-science held more sway than data and rigorous logic.  
    Today, Timothy Taylor has raised a similar subject in his Conversable Economics blog. 
 
"When you listen to economists who have worked in or near government about their role in the mechanisms of policy-making, they are appropriately humble. They harbor (sic) few illusions that a quick lecture ....... will convert politicians to their point of view.  They are aware that political figures will grab an economic argument if it tends to support their pre-existing views, and ignore the argument otherwise."

     I immediately wonder if the power of the academic analysis is being correctly or incorrectly assessed by the politician. And if, in some cases, the politicians are ignoring sound advice, how can they be punished? It is often months, sometimes years, after policy steps are taken that their effects are known. 

     Taylor quoted George Stigler, who wryly wrote (1976) that:

"economists exert a minor and scarcely detectable influence on the societies in which they live."

    Taylor also quoted a perceptive and far reaching remark of Milton Friedman (1980): 

“The only person who can truly persuade you is yourself. You must turn the issues over in your mind at leisure, consider the many arguments, let them simmer, and after a long time turn your preferences into convictions.”    

     This, of course, is the academic; for the politician does not have the time, nor the right type of mind, to reflect in this way. He reacts to events with a knee-jerk response; afferents and efferents, but no frontal-lobe involvement. It may be necessary to lay before the politician the entire argument, right down to the calculated results on the GDP and the voters' response. 

    All, or a significant majority, of academic opinion must agree. Not that the majority is in all cases correct –– a point that my colleague Peter Mitchell enjoyed pointing out, after he was awarded the Nobel Prize for Chemistry in 1978

    It may also be crucial that this entire argument be laid before the voters, for it to have significant effect on the political mind. The academic economist must 'raise his game'.



13 December 2024

Old-School

"Old-School Musicians in Merida"

    I was impressed by the almost Christ-like sacrifice represented by the career of Felipe Carrillo Puerto, the only governor of the state of Merida to learn, and speak, the Mayan language. He who, while still a young man, had been imprisoned for encouraging the native Mayans to break down fences erected by rapacious land-owners; fences that prevented the peasants from accessing their ancestral lands. He who, in 1922 at the age of 47, was elected overwhelmingly as governor of the state.

     Carrillo Puerto proclaimed the "first socialist government in the Americas". During his 20 months as governor he initiated land reform, confiscating large estates and returning land to the native Maya. He promoted new farming techniques, granted women political rights, began family planning programs, fought against alcoholism, and fought for the conservation and restoration of pre-Columbian Mayan archaeological sites. In the first year of his administration, 417 public schools were opened; and he founded the Universidad Nacional del Sureste.
      In early 1924 he, with 3 of his brothers and eight of his friends, was lined up and shot by political enemies. 
      My friend was trying to remember a love song said to have been written for Carillio Puerte when he fell in love with a young woman visitor from the United States. In 1922, the 33-year-old American  journalist Alma Reed (whose marriage to Reed had been annulled) was invited to Mexico by President Álvaro Obregón as an honoured guest. In February 1923, her party was welcomed to Yucatan by the strikingly handsome governor; described in her autobiography as "a man of exceptional magnetism and rare physical beauty. He was attired in a crisp white linen suit and, in his over six-foot height, towered head and shoulders above the assistants and petitioners who crowded around him". To a colleague who asked how she found him, she replied unhesitatingly «He's my idea of a Greek God!» The attraction seems to have been mutual. At the end of the year, Reed returned to the States to prepare for marriage, never to see Carrillo Puerto again. 
    The song addresses her as "La Peregrina” ('The Pilgrim'), by which name she is now immortalised. Composed, in the 4 verse Trova style, by Ricardo Palmerín (a Yucateco composer), to words by Luis Rosado Vega (a Yucateco poet); though not a great song, it was known by all and sung by many, even to this day.  
     On Friday, at 7pm, we returned to the little plaza where, the previous night, we had heard the singing and dancing of La Serenata. No audience now, but three microphones on the stage; and one elderly guitarist in a severe black suit, like an undertaker's, who confessed to knowing the 100-year-old song. He said if we returned at 8pm he and his colleagues would open their ‘spot’ with “La Peregrina”.
     When we returned at 8, it turned out the owner of the bar had changed his mind and was going to ask a younger group to play. We were disappointed, as of course were the musicians. After a word with his colleagues, who had appeared from nowhere, they agreed to play the song, just for us. They lined up; leader in the middle, lead-guitarist on our right, he with the big fat acoustic  bass guitar on our left. And they sang the song; just for us. My friend gave the leader 200 pesos, though that hardly reflected our joy at hearing the song, acoustically, from three guitars and three singers who, between them would be carrying at least two hundred years of memories and tradition.
      There was a suggestion that the Gringo journalist was a US spy. But I think it would be wrong to doubt the honesty and good faith of Alma Reed; she spent many subsequent years in Mexico, and was a great supporter of the politically motivated muralist painter, Orozco.


     After hearing ‘our love song’ sung so beautifully and authentically, just for us, we made our short way back, past the patient horses and their gaily decorated fiacres, to our hotel. Long after midnight I could still hear the repetitive thumping and out-of-tune wailing from the youngsters and their loudspeakers in our little plaza. 

     Perhaps we should call in on the restaurant tomorrow and tell the owner how delighted we were to hear the ‘old school’ musicians singing a true Yucateca song without amplification in the square on Friday night.


PEREGRINA

(Ricardo Palmerín/Luis Rosado Vega)

Peregrina de ojos claros y divinos

y mejillas encendidas de arrebol,

mujercita de los labios purpurinos

y radiante cabellera como el sol.


Peregrina que dejaste tus lugares,

los abetos y la nieve y la nieve virginal

y veniste a refugiarte en mis palmares

bajo el cielo de mi tierra, de mi tierra tropical.


Las canoras avecillas de mis prados,

por cantarte dan sus trinos si te ven

y las flores de nectarios perfumados,

te acarician en los labios, en los labios y en la sien.


Cuando dejes mis palmeras y mi tierra,

Peregrina del semblante encantador:

No te olvides, no te olvides de mi tierra,

no te olvides, no te olvides de mi amor.

(For others of my posts about Mexico, put the keyword Mexico in the search box.)

30 November 2024

Mad Cults & Minority Beliefs

 Mad Cults & Minority Beliefs.

I wonder how interested we should be in those murderous cults of the postwar era that led their devotees to commit mass suicide. It is such a bizarre extreme that interest seems somewhat ghoulish.  Dutch tulip-mania was odd. Christianity is odd, and in some forms very odd. But these cults strike me as impossible to understand.

I am thinking of the seventies cult of "the jungle poisoner", Jim Jones of Jonestown, and his "Peoples Temple" cult that culminated in 1978 with 'revolutionary suicide' in the Guyanan jungle. And of David Koresh's "Branch Davidian" cult that ended (in 1993) in the  Mount Carmel siege near Waco (Texas). The third example that comes to mind is less well known in the Anglophone world; it climaxed in French-speaking Switzerland in the nineties. I looked it up on Wikipedia  –– 'L' Ordre du Temple Solaire'

"The Order of the Solar Temple (French: Ordre du Temple solaire, OTS), or simply the Solar Temple, was a French-speaking religious group, often described as a cult, notorious for the mass deaths of many of its members in several mass murders and suicides throughout the 1990s. The OTS was a neo-Templar movement, claiming to be a continuation of the Knights Templar, and incorporated a mix of Rosicrucianism, Theosophy, and New Age ideas. It was led by Joseph Di Mambro, with Luc Jouret as a spokesman and second in command. It was founded in 1984, in Geneva, Switzerland."

It seems to me that these three murderous cults of the postwar era were each started by charismatic pranksters who were amused at their ability to hoodwink people, but who grew to believe their own nonsense, even to death. This Swiss cult was said to contain many "intelligent middle class adherents". (!)

Part of my interest comes from the realisation that essentially all religions are cults; it is hard to find a definition of a cult that does not include the Church of England. There may be a spectrum, running from Jim Jones on the one hand to the archbishop of Canterbury and the Quakers on the other. But Quakerism is undeniably a cult; its followers proudly and stubbornly following their charismatic (though long dead) leader. On that spectrum running from Jim Jones to George Fox there lies all the great religious names: Buddha, Jesus, Muhammad, Guru Nanak,......; men with magnetism, and a message that appeals.  

The number of adherents who follow a cult determines its social standing but that may depend on marketing as much as on appeal; think of Spanish thumb-screws and the 'Auto da Fé '. 

Popularity may relate less to the plausibility of the claims, than to their desirability, their ability to meet a human need. Some people crave status. But many people need a friend, and many need hope.  

I have remarked elsewhere [1] that the outstanding popularity of Christianity as a world religion may derive from the hope of life after death. After all, how plausible is 'life after death'? And how desireable? 

The Quaker cult seems to be 'odd man out' in that there seems to be essentially no claim. Followers are offered (a) friendship, and (b) the sense of doing the right thing. Nothing more (in the present century). That may be why the cult is dwindling. 

29 November 2024

Los Tres Cojos

Los Tres Cojos 

Traffic moves slowly in Mexico City; more correctly I should say it move rapidly but with many pauses. The queues of stationary cars, at certain points on the Circuito interior, are so dependable that teams of nimble sales persons are poised ready to dash in amongst the cars with sweets, or drinks, or trinkets, or lottery tickets; especially at rush hours.

At traffic lights on major crossings, where the cycle-time allows, there are often entertainers poised ready to step into the space in front of the cars to perform for their captive audience.  On Avenida José Vasconcelos I have often seen children juggling with three balls and, after dark, young men juggling with flaming torches. Sometime you see tumblers or break-dancers. They have to move smartly when the lights change, but clearly know when their time is up.

Today I saw a unique display; three one-legged men on crutches playing with a  football. They kept their ball up with great skill using their three single legs, occasionally extending a crutch to stop the ball escaping into the traffic. 

The Spanish language has a special word for a one-legged man — un cojo. And, not surprisingly, also for a one-armed man — un manco. (Cervanres was one such, I am told.)  I teasingly asked about a man with only one eye, and was told “Yes, a one-eyed man is referred to as un tuerto.” What verbal richness! What nice distinctions become possible with a language so specific! Why are such words missing from the English Language? What is special about the Spanish – their legal system, perhaps?

But I am ashamed to note that I have already deserted the bizarre spectacle that moved me to write this note; my tres cojos at the crossroads in front of the Russian Embassy. 

(For others of my posts about Mexico, put the keyword Mexico in the search box.)

22 November 2024

A Lesson for Eighty-year-olds

 A lesson for eighty-year-olds faced with lost keys and the collapse of a familiar way of life. 

The key-fob was missing and La Profesora could not get back into her office. She had only gone to the 'ladies', locking her office door behind her. The search, of every conceivable place, had delayed departure by half an hour, and the chauffeur needed to get home as his 10-year-old was coughing blood in hospital. 

All this led to a restless night of self recrimination, doom scenarios, and the listing of jobs for the morning with 'changing-the-locks' at the top. Finally sleep arrived.

Next morning the hair-dresser was due at 10am, but reported that the traffic in the city was 'blocked'. Further catastrophes loomed; what if she never arrived, nor the maid, nor the flowers! 

But with daylight, came a WhatsApp message from the profesora's faithful post-doc; the key-fob had been found; allegedly "in the waste-bin in the Ladies", with the used paper towels! Then, on the dot of 10:00, a buzz from the concierge announced the arrival of the hairdresser. 

The mind, now freed from its worries, could notice that the sun was shining, picking out the dazzling yellow jasmine on the house across the (abnormally empty) street. The tumbling world was back on its feet. 







08 October 2024

Crab Apple Jelly

Crab Apple Jelly 


Once again the hedgerow yielded a heavy crop of windfallen crab apples, and I felt bound to try to make use of them.  I have made crab apple jelly for several years now with some success, so set myself to do that again. 


I gathered a bagful of sound fruits, took them home, washed them and weighed out a portion (1.215 kg). These I halved and put in my leaky old pressure cooker with 1.2 litres of water, brought them to the boil (at atmospheric pressure) and simmered them for 2 hours. 

When cold, I put the whole lot into a 'muslin' bag (derived from an old pillow), and set to drip overnight. Next morning, I squeezed out nigh as much again with my hands and set the fluid aside. The pulp I re-extracted with a second litre of water, and that I think was a mistake -- though not fatal. Next time I shall use less water, perhaps 750 ml. I brought the mixture to the boil again, and again simmered for an hour. Filtered again through the 'muslin', I combined the two liquid extracts into the cleaned pressure cooker. I added 1.0 kg of ordinary granulated sugar. (In previous years I added the same weight of sugar as of the fruit, as I do for seville-orange marmalade, but wondered if my jelly was 'too' sweet.)  The volume of all this amounted to 2.88 litres, determined by measuring the diameter of the cylindrical pan and the depth of liquid; and applying the formula:

Volume  = depth x 3.14159 x (diameter/2)^2. (volume in ml, if measuring in cms.)

Bringing the sweetened extract to the boil and simmering for an hour brought the volume to 2.58 litres, but there was no sign of setting. So I turned up the gas and fanned the open pan to enhance the evaporation. Half an hour brought the volume to 1.627 litres. A sample allowed to cool formed a wobbly gel. 

So, on the third day, I brought the pan gradually to the boil, with stirring, warmed 8 jam jars in the oven to 80º, and scalded their lids in a basin with a kettle of boiling water.  After switching off the gas, I allowed the pan to cool for 15 minutes before ladling the  hot jelly into a pint jug and pouring it into the jam jars. I filled 5 standard (454 gm) jars.



27 September 2024

Please Stop the Bombing

 Please Stop the Bombing

    The other day I took a telephone call from an unknown number. I am very ready to be hostile to unknown callers, resembling in that respect my father. I managed an "Hello" in my driest, coolest, voice with a faint interrogative upturn at the end. However, a pleasantly cultured voice told me that he was phoning on behalf of humanity; "Humanity & Inclusion" in fact, whose appeal on Facebook I had recently signed. 

    "Been going since the eighties, in a quiet way", he told me. 

    Well (I thought to myself), it is a rather un-arresting title; a 'catch-all'. As though they had founded the charity before they had thought of the cause they were going to espouse. 

    "Why were you opposed to the bombing of civilians?" he asked me. 
    "I regard the bombing of non-combatant civilians as a war-crime, prohibited by
Protocol I (1977) of the Geneva Conventions", I explained,  "Though, if Hamas deliberately mixes their combatants among innocent civilians, they are as guilty as the Israelis. However, that does not make the bombing legal." 

    "And I want nothing to do with such brutality and criminality" I added. 

    Of course, it cost me a year's worth of donations to Humanity & Inclusion. But it was a worthwhile phone call, as it has clarified my mind on the matter. 

    I do protest. I would not want to be a citizen of a brutal, criminal and inhumane country.